英倫翻譯社/ Trsmaster

主計處今年GDP預測為2.59%，不過，里昂證券看好歐美經濟復甦，最新報告指出，今年GDP可以達到"5.7%"，讓企業大老和學者直接吐槽說，很難達到。

台經院景氣預測中心主任孫明德，聽到里昂證券，最新台灣GDP預測報告，居然高達5.7%，驚訝到腳還拐了一下。

[[台經院景氣預測中心主任 孫明德]]
“台灣要從(去年的)1變到5點多，要成長三翻翻三翻，這個難度很高”

里昂證券指出，歐美經濟復甦，加上韓元升值，有助於提升台灣電子業競爭力，讓GDP大幅反彈，相較於主計處預測今年GDP為2.59%，外資對今年景氣普遍樂觀。

[[摩根證券執行董事 吳淑婷]]
“出口這一塊，我們是很肯定相當不錯，內需就要大家一起來加油，如果說連內需，也能在今年第二季，或下半年整個，很熱絡帶動下，3有機會可以達到”

台灣去年出口金額為歷年次高，今年因為歐洲轉單的手術防護衣、自行車和電動車零組件，讓外資機構認為企業獲利有機會創新高。

A mix of astonishment and disbelief is the general reaction to the latest prediction for Taiwan’s growth. According to the foreign brokerage CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, GDP could increase by 5.7 percent this year. That’s more than double the forecast by the government’s official statistics agency. 

The director of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research finds it hard to believe that Taiwan will be able to meet CLSA’s prediction.

Gordon Sun
Taiwan Institute of Economic Research
For Taiwan to go from 1 percent to more than 5 percent, growth will have to double then double again and double again. This will be very difficult.

When arguing for the strength of Taiwan’s electronics industry, CLSA cited the recovery in the United States and Europe and a stronger Korean won. It is not the only foreign brokerage to express greater optimism than the 2.59 percent forecast by Taiwan’s official statistics bureau. 

Charlene Wu
J. P. Morgan Asset Management
We think exports will do well. Everyone needs to work together to improve domestic demand. If domestic demand is strong in the second quarter or the second half of the year, 3 percent growth would be possible.

Taiwan had its second-best exports showing ever in 2013. This year, Europe has already expressed strong interest in locally produced surgical clothing, bicycles and electric vehicle components. This is just one sign contributing to the bullish attitude among foreign analysts.